Last edited by Tarisar
Wednesday, February 12, 2020 | History

6 edition of Useless Arithmetic found in the catalog.

Useless Arithmetic

Why Environmental Scientists Can"t Predict the Future

by Orrin H. Pilkey

  • 211 Want to read
  • 38 Currently reading

Published by Columbia University Press .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Mathematical modelling,
  • The Environment,
  • Public Policy - Environmental Policy,
  • Environmental policy,
  • Environmental Conservation & Protection - General,
  • Science/Mathematics,
  • Science,
  • Environmental Studies,
  • Mathematics,
  • Mathematical models,
  • Environmental protection,
  • Science / General,
  • Ecology,
  • General,
  • Decision making

  • The Physical Object
    FormatHardcover
    Number of Pages248
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL9364659M
    ISBN 100231132123
    ISBN 109780231132121

    Each case is described in a chapter: marine fisheries, the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste depository, the effects of rising sea level as a consequence of global climate change, the use of the Bruun Rule for It explains that "the future of the world's beaches hangs in the balance, from big threats such as engineering, mining, and pollution, to activities that seem harmless, like driving on beaches. Pilkey is the James B. Choice Useless Arithmetic will surely excite any reader.

    The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. Kelley, J. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis argue that many models are worse than useless, providing a false sense of security and an unwarranted confidence in our scientific expertise. His co-author, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, brings expertise in both environmental contamination problems and public administration.

    The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked. The audience for this book is "non-specialists who are interested in nature and in the politics of working with the earth" page xiv. Add to basket Add to wishlist Description Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Product Details Promotional Information Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. Whether or not there will be rain tomorrow is a statement based on a variety of weather models. Cooper eds.


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Useless Arithmetic book

Having been living recently in North Carolina, I am aware of the role of one of the authors, Orrin Pilkey, in combating beach development. Steven R. Pilkey is the James B. Geographers in the southeastern U. As a result of the destruction of his parents' house in Waveland, Mississippi in Hurricane Camillehe switched to the study of coasts.

When you start looking into it, you find that a lot of global and local decisions are made based on modeling the environment. Reviews "This book is a welcome antidote to the blind use of supposedly quantitative models.

Choice Useless Arithmetic will surely excite any reader. In the book, Useless Arithmetic, written with his daughter, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, they argue that the outcome of natural processes in general cannot be accurately predicted by mathematical models. Pilkey, and J. In general, Pilkey argues that mathematical models cannot be used to accurately predict the behavior of beaches, although they can be useful if directional or orders-of-magnitude answers are sought.

Add to basket Add to wishlist Description Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed.

A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers.

Kelley, J. In order to secure federal funding and justify the enormous costs of these projects, anyone undertaking one must make a prediction of how long the sand will last on the replenished beach. Extra-Curricular Texts In order to provide students with examples of the interesting fields mathematical studies opens, several books of ranging difficulties have been supplied.

Well, the occurrence of storms at any beach is neither unusual nor unexpected. Complete Book Keeping. Pilkey-Jarvis, and K. A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers.

Norton's Elements of Physics. There are some fascinating and discouraging stories of model misuse and misplaced trust in models in the book. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.

Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis argue that many models are worse than useless, providing a false sense of security and an unwarranted confidence in our scientific expertise.

Regardless of how one responds to their views, they can't be ignored. Carpenter, Issues in Science and Technology This book should be in every library A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers.

The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems.

Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects.Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future: Authors: Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future, presents a series of examples on the failure of mathematical modeling of environmental problems.

Orrin H. Pilkey

The problems dealt with in this book are dominated by coastal process issues and beach. Government administrators and policy makers use quantitative mathematical models to form future environmental policies.

The authors of this book assert that these models are basically useless, that they lead to policies that make things worse, not better/5.

Feb 16,  · This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue. This book is similar in spirit to Nassim N. Taleb's book The Black Swan reviewed elsewhere on this page, but where Taleb deals with the world of finance, this book deals with mathematical modeling.

Nov 26,  · Useless Arithmetic dispels many myths and is a 'must read' packing in case studies and insights on faulty thinking., The Midwest Book Review [This] readily accessible book should be read by any activist who's ever had to face off against the opposition's engineers., Earth Island Journal A concise, powerful, and readable book/5(23).

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